17th April 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
The prompt decreased slightly due to a healthy renewable power forecast, while an expected rise in temperatures from Wednesday onward provided resistance to the bulls on the near-curve. However, the system opened short due to unplanned outages which capped any losses. The back of the curve displayed minor changes as oil and coal markets became more stable. Renewable generation increased from Friday’s levels with a further improvement expected today; as a result the prompt moved down. The rest of the near-curve was generally stable as weaker gas supply was offset by a warm weather outlook. Further out, any downward movement was limited by a bullish carbon market.
Market Open Market Open
The system has opened slightly long this morning as healthy renewable power has resulted in a sharp drop in CCGT demand. Tomorrow’s forecast is also warm which will reduce residential demand, contributing to losses on the prompt and across the near-curve. Meanwhile, oil is slightly bearish and coal markets have stabilised, helping towards bearish movement on the far-curve. Temperatures could rise to 6°C above the seasonal average tomorrow, with warm weather expected till the end of the week at least. This, combined with strong wind levels today has helped towards losses across the near-curve this morning. Contracts further along the curve display mixed changes due to contrasting fuel markets.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices trade below $71.3/b this morning, a small loss from yesterday’s open as the oil market is less volatile at the start of this week. Tensions in the Middle East continue to cause concerns in regards to potential supply disruption, with an economic crisis in Venezuela also affecting production.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased slightly – closing at 48.78ppt and £49.43/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 17-04-2018

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