17th May 2016 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Norwegian flows into the UK decreased yesterday which resulted in numerous gains across the curve, although some European contracts displayed no change due to various bank holidays. Early in the session Langeled output stood at 53mcm but fell to 14mcm in the afternoon which resulted in a tight UK gas system. Meanwhile, a sharp rise in oil prices continues to push far-curve contracts higher with on-going supply concerns the main market driver. Bullish sentiment prevailed on the power curve yesterday with stronger gas and oil markets offering support. The expected decline in coal-fired generation due to shutdowns continues to lift winter contracts, although the Dungeness B facility is set to return online later today. In other news, temperatures for next week were revised higher yesterday which should reduce consumption levels.
Market Open Market Open
Overall fundamentals remain bullish this morning following a significant increase in exports to Belgium and continued weak supply. Norwegian and Bacton Seal output remains weak which has resulted in a short UK gas system, while gas flows from Libya to Italy will be halted for ten days due to maintenance; leading to an increase in exports from other nations. Rising oil continues to contribute to gains on the far-curve but a warmer weather forecast for next week has helped to limit some upward movement on the near-curve. The majority of power contracts have opened at a premium this morning although an improved generation forecast has helped the prompt record a loss. A drop in API2 coal has also led to some decreases further along the curve but strengthening oil remains the main market driver for energy contracts.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices continue to rise and currently trade above $49.2/b with on-going supply disruptions providing strong support. Traders continue to wait for developments in Nigeria and Venezuela where political tensions remain high.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased - closing at 35.68ppt and £38.18/MWh, respectively.

Today's prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our 'current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 17-05-2016