|Gas prices weakened on Thursday thanks to a positive supply/ demand outlook and a falling coal market. Mild weather is expected to weigh on residential demand, while the return of the Nordstream pipeline has improved supply levels on the continent. An extension to the Kollsnes outage restricted losses on the prompt, with another planned outage also scheduled at Karsto next week.
|Power contracts followed their gas counterparts and moved down yesterday, with a significant drop in coal prices the main market driver. A proposal which would allow modern coal mines in China to increase output was submitted by the Chinese NDRC. The plan also requests that safety checks at various mines are postponed to ensure short-term supply, applying strong bearish pressure to coal prices.
|The short term weather outlook is unchanged and above average temperatures are expected in the UK over the weekend and next week, weighing on demand. Nordstream flows continue to rise but Norwegian output is restricted by outages, however, production should return to full capacity at the end of next week. This healthier supply picture has resulted in price-drops across the curve this morning.
|Mild temperatures, combined with a comfortable renewable generation forecast for next week has resulted in further losses across the near power curve this morning. Improved gas supply is also a bearish factor, while a weak outlook for coal prices following yesterday’s drop has weighed on the far-curve.
For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.
Brent 1st-nearby prices continue to show upward momentum ahead of today’s OPEC meeting, with on-going support provided by an improved demand forecast; Brent currently trades just below $56.4/b.
1-year forward prices
Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased – closing at 44.78ppt and £45.55/MWh, respectively.
Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.
Click graph to enlarge
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