24th January 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
The mild weather outlook for January and February continues to apply bearish pressure to the near-curve. However, any losses were limited by a drop in supply as unplanned outages reduced Norwegian and UKCS flows into the UK. Prices further along the curve held firm as a bullish oil market offered continued support. Wind levels were expected to remain strong today, helping the prompt decrease, while the rest of the near-curve was dictated by a weaker demand forecast. Oil prices strengthened which restricted losses at the back of the curve, while the coal market displayed little movement.
Market Open Market Open
Weak demand levels have contributed to further downward movement at the front of the gas curve this morning, despite some supply constraints. Forecasts for February are rather uncertain but most reports point to temperatures which fall in line with the seasonal norm. Meanwhile, coal and oil prices are stable and have failed to offer much support to the far-curve. The prompt has rallied higher this morning as wind generation is expected to fall significantly tomorrow. Movement further along the curve is largely bearish as mild weather is expected over the next week which will reduce heating demand. Far-curve contracts have also shed from their price with little direction provided by fuel markets.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent prices climbed above $70/b yesterday but have softened slightly this morning to trade at $69.96/b. The market remains bullish as efforts made by OPEC nations and Russia to curb output have offset the effects of increased oil drilling in the US.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased – closing at 47.28ppt and £46.86/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 24-01-2018

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