|The supply/ demand outlook looks healthier for the Easter weekend as the predicted cold spell (Beast from the East 3) is now looking unlikely, with temperatures forecast to be around the seasonal norm. This helped near-curve gas contracts shed from their price, with healthy LNG send-outs also a factor. Far-curve contracts decreased in the afternoon but losses were limited by higher oil prices.
|Wind generation was expected to rise today which helped the prompt record a loss, with the milder weather outlook and healthy gas supply weighing on the rest of the near-curve. Further out, prices gradually moved down throughout the session, with weaker coal and carbon prices outweighing a supportive oil market.
|The system has opened 0.3mcm short this morning with demand levels sitting 3mcm above the seasonal average. LNG send-outs remain strong and Langeled flows are at capacity, while 4mcm is being injected into storage. Prompt prices remain bearish as temperatures for the start of April have been revised higher, while the back of the curve continues to take direction from rising Brent.
|Wind levels are expected to fall again tomorrow, helping the prompt open at a premium, with the gains filtering through to the rest of the near-curve ahead of the Easter weekend. Carbon prices are expected to rise towards the end of the week and coal displays a rebound, this has helped far-curve prices move higher as oil prices remain strong.
For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.
Brent remains at $70/b this morning despite optimism that a trade war can be avoided following positive comments by the US Treasury Secretary, however, a weaker Dollar has provided some resistance.
1-year forward prices
Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for commercial gas decreased slightly, while commercial electricity moved higher– closing at 49.03ppt and £49.47/MWh, respectively.
Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.
Click graph to enlarge
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