Close price: The week has started in bullish tone. Lower temperatures and wind output has put fundamental upward pressure. But it is the geopolitical topics driving prices higher.
The EU finalised an agreement to cut Russian oil exports by more than two thirds, eventually rising as high as 90%, with only some concessions from pipelines into East Europe allowed, following some push back from Hungary. Even that will be under review longer term, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has stated.
As a result, Oil has been trading strongly, pushing up the wider energy mix with it.
Opening price: Prices are up again. This mainly comes down to the reaction over the suspension of Russian gas exports into the Netherlands, who did not facilitate in the requested roubles payments. There is growing speculation that Denmark will follow suit, with Orsted publicly stating they will only pay in Euro’s and the deadline payment for last month’s deliveries falls today.
Currently, we have seen Poland, Bulgaria, Finland and the Netherlands cut off. Natural gas is becoming a centre focus on the ‘other economic war’ and the market fully expects more to follow, pricing up longer dated contracts.