Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Unplanned outages resulted in reduced UKCS production on Monday, while demand levels in the UK also rose to 22% above the seasonal norm, resulting in a significantly undersupplied system. This led to a strong rise on the prompt with gains displayed across the curve, although some of the upward movement was restricted by the scheduled arrival of several LNG deliveries from Qatar.
Day-Ahead gas climbed higher on Friday after dropping to its lowest prices for seven years on Thursday, with the gains filtering through to the rest of the near-curve. A drop in Norwegian imports via the Langeled pipeline in the afternoon resulted in an undersupplied gas system, with weaker LNG send-outs also a factor.
Gas prices displayed further losses on Thursday as the UK gas system was long throughout the session, with a rise in Norwegian imports also expected today. Norwegian flows are set to be redirected to the UK due to maintenance at pipelines to mainland Europe. LNG send-outs also increased with several deliveries expected to arrive in the coming weeks; this resulted in losses across the near-curve, while contracts further out were pressured down by falling Brent.
Day-Ahead gas fell close to a seven-year low yesterday on the back of significant oversupply and low demand in the UK. The Rough storage facility remains unavailable for storage injections which led to exports to Belgium reaching their capacity, with the remaining storage sites in the UK close to being full. Furthermore, additional Norwegian flows could be redirected to the UK due to maintenance at the Zeebrugge pipeline over the next few days.
The UK gas system was oversupplied throughout Tuesdayâ€™s session despite a halt in Norwegian imports due to planned maintenance. Higher UKCS production and weaker demand helped the system remain long and also led to an increase in exports to Belgium. This healthier supply picture helped near-curve prices record a loss, while a drop in Brent weighed on contracts further along the curve.