Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Gas prices moved higher on Friday afternoon with an unplanned outage at the St Fergus terminal reducing UKCS flows, resulting in a short gas system. St Fergus is also set to undergo scheduled maintenance from the 20th of November until the 18th of December; limiting output by 12mcm/ day. A milder weather forecast for this week restricted some of the gains on the near-curve, while falling coal and oil limited upward movement further out.
Gas systems across Europe were comfortable yesterday which helped towards losses on the near-curve. An increase in imports from Norway and Belgium contributed to a long UK gas system despite a 29mccm rise in demand levels. Temperatures are also expected to turn milder next week which was another factor behind the downward trend.
Gas prices moved down yesterday afternoon despite a bullish opening to the session, with a milder weather forecast for next week helping to weigh on the prompt; wind power was also set to rise which will reduce the UKâ€™s reliance on more expensive CCGT generation. Meanwhile, the UK gas system was well-supplied throughout the session and the Pound strengthened against the Euro.
Gas contracts moved higher on Tuesday as demand levels are set to increase over the coming days due to an expected cold snap in the UK. Rising oil prices were also a bullish factor, although an expected increase in wind power should reduce CCGT generation, limiting some of the upward movement on the prompt.