Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Gas prices moved down yesterday as warmer weather is expected for the rest of the week and improved wind power led to a decrease in CCGT demand. The system was slightly long despite weaker LNG send-outs and a number of outages in Europe. Further out, prices displayed minor losses as fuel markets were largely stable.
The prompt decreased slightly due to a healthy renewable power forecast, while an expected rise in temperatures from Wednesday onward provided resistance to the bulls on the near-curve. However, the system opened short due to unplanned outages which capped any losses. The back of the curve displayed minor changes as oil and coal markets became more stable.
The prompt climbed higher on Friday following a drop in supply, although a warmer weather outlook for the weekend and this week helped to limit upward movement on the rest of the near-curve. Meanwhile, sentiment at the back of the curve was generally bullish with support provided by stronger oil and coal prices.
Upward movement could be observed across the gas curve yesterday despite a balanced system. Cooler weather was expected to continue today which will keep demand levels above the seasonal norm, although the end of planned outages in Europe resulted in improved supply. Prices at the back of the curve continued to increase with direction coming from bullish Brent.
Gas prices increased during Wednesday’s session due to an undersupplied system and rising fuel markets. Scheduled maintenance in Norway restricted flows to the rest of Europe, while colder weather lifted demand, tightening supply. Further out, oil prices found support from the potential US/ China trade war and tensions in the Middle East.