Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
The majority of gas prices moved higher yesterday despite a healthy supply picture at the start of the session. Norwegian flows increased significantly and Dutch imports also rose which resulted in a long UK gas system. However, an outage led to a decrease in flows via the Langeled pipeline in the afternoon which helped the prompt climb higher. Fewer LNG deliveries into the UK also reduced send-outs, providing further upward pressure.
The UK gas system was short for the majority of yesterdayâ€™s session and LNG output is also set to decrease over the next few weeks which offered support to gas prices. Storage withdrawals ramped up in an attempt to balance the system, offsetting the drop in Dutch output. Meanwhile, Brent rallied higher and contributed to bullish movement further along the curve.
The UK gas system was oversupplied on Friday with demand levels 10% below the seasonal norm which helped near-curve gas contracts to decrease in price. Temperatures were expected to remain above average for the rest of November which also provided bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the outage at the Kvitebjorn gas field in Norway was resolved which led to an increase in flows via the Langeled pipeline.
Gas prices displayed mixed movement during Thursdayâ€™s session as a milder weather outlook for the next few days was offset by weaker Norwegian supply and lower Dutch imports. The drop in flows via the Langeled and BBL pipelines resulted in an undersupplied system at the start of the session, supporting the prompt.
Gas prices inched higher yesterday despite a healthy supply/ demand outlook in the UK and a long gas system. An unplanned outage in Norway may have offered some support to near-curve prices but the main market driver was on-going political tensions, as Gazprom cut imports into Ukraine due to lack of payment.