2nd January 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Day-Ahead gas opened unchanged at the start of yesterday’s session but quickly lost value thanks to a long system. Improved UKCS production helped towards the oversupply, with flows via the IUK pipeline also strong. High LDZ demand limited losses on the near-curve, while a rise in coal prices continued to lift some contracts further out. Power prices tracked movement on the gas curve yesterday with an expected rise in temperatures and wind levels contributing to losses at the front of the curve. A comfortable gas system was also a factor behind any losses, while bullish coal and oil supported prices on the far-curve.
Market Open Market Open
The UK gas system has opened 28mcm long this morning with demand levels sitting 40mcm below the seasonal norm. LDZ demand has dropped by 25mcm due to milder temperatures but CCGT demand has increased slightly. In terms of supply, UKCS production is higher but an unplanned outage at Oseberg has restricted Norwegian flows. The improved supply picture has helped towards losses at the front of the curve, while stronger fuel has provided some support further out. The outlook for the rest of the week is mild and windy, resulting in a strong loss on the prompt which has filtered through to the rest of the near-curve with the help of healthier gas supply. However, movement further along the curve is slightly bullish due to increases on coal and oil markets.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices have increased by over $3/b over the winter period, their highest level since the middle of 2015 with support provided by anti-government protests in Iran.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased– closing at 49.15ppt and £48.10/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 02-01-2018

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