20th December 2017 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Near-curve gas prices displayed losses yesterday as temperatures are expected to rise above the seasonal norm over the next few days and wind levels have increased slightly; resulting in weaker LDZ and CCGT demand. Meanwhile, movement at back of the curve was minimal due to a stable session for both coal and oil markets. The expected drop in heating demand over the next few days helped prompt power contracts shed from the price yesterday. A slight rise in wind generation was expected today, weighing on the prompt but the outlook for next week is low. Movement along the far-curve was largely stable with little support provided by fuel markets.
Market Open Market Open
The system has opened 12mcm short this morning but the prospect of mild weather continues to weigh on gas prices. Imports via the IUK and BBL pipelines are both down, contributing to the current undersupply, while CCGT generation is expected to rise over the Christmas holidays due to weak wind levels. Further out, oil continues to provide some support but any gains remain minimal. A milder weather forecast has weighed on the prompt this morning, with wind levels expected to remain at current levels tomorrow. However, wind generation is expected to drop over the weekend and gas-fired power will be required to make up the shortfall, lifting some near-curve prices. Sentiment on the far-curve is unchanged as coal has stabilised and Brent has held its price ahead of this afternoon’s stocks report.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices are almost unchanged from yesterday with the potential of downward movement if today’s stocks report does not show a decline in US crude inventories.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased slightly – closing at 48.63ppt and £47.22/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 20-12-2017

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