Spot power prices are expected to continue on a downward trend today as overall fundamentals are practically unchanged from yesterday. A reduction in nuclear availability has provided some support but supply levels are generally healthy and demand levels are set to decrease towards the weekend. Gas prices have decreased yesterday on the back of eased tensions in Ukraine and an expected rise in temperatures. Today prices continue to take direction from mild weather forecasts and further downward movement is expected. Today's prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our 'current UK energy price' page.
How did the energy markets close?
Gas contracts decreased in price yesterday due to a revised weather forecast which predicts above average temperatures for most of March. Meanwhile, the UK gas system was long for the majority of the session as overall gas flows were healthy. The power curve was largely influenced by falling gas prices and losses were observed by the majority of contracts with Summer-15 the exception, posting a gain of £0.25/MWh. Strong wind generation was also expected for today and should continue for the next few days, providing further support to the bears.
How did the energy markets open?
Gas prices continue to display losses with a number of LNG deliveries expected to arrive in the UK this month. Storage levels have also increased due to a long UK gas system, while Brent recorded a loss and weighed on some far-curve contracts. Power prices mirrored gas with a warmer weather outlook, healthy wind generation and weaker fuel dictating the market. Day-Ahead was one of the few contracts to move higher with a temporary drop in demand tomorrow assisting the bulls.
1-year forward prices
Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased - closing at 48.78ppt and £45.15/MWh, respectively. This can be seen in the graph below. Note: Brent Crude prices are taken from opening market data, and do not represent the price as it changes throughout the day.
Latest Brent Crude Price
Brent 1st-nearby prices fell below $60/b yesterday and are close to their levels at the start of last week. The current outlook is bearish despite optimistic comments from the Saudi Arabian oil minister regarding global demand but as it stands the market is still extremely over-supplied.