Front-Month prices closed at a discount yesterday and spot prices are not expected to recuperate much value today with the near curve expected to remain neutral to bearish. Conditions influencing power prices have remained impassive again today, with ongoing mild weather forecasted and comfortable nuclear supplies from both France and Germany. There was little change in European gas fundamentals yesterday, and the continued comfortable supply/demand balance today means that the bearish pressure we saw yesterday is likely to persist on current spot prices. Conditions on the near curve, namely March 14, remain unchanged from yesterday. Today's prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our 'current UK energy price' page.
How did the energy markets close?
There were only minor losses again across the gas curve yesterday, with Summer-16 recording the largest loss of 0.55ppt. Several contracts remained unchanged as Linepack closed 6mcm short which gave prices some resilience yesterday. Front-Month power contracts shed £0.15/MWh yesterday, whilst a forecast of 6GW wind generation for today helped Day-Ahead decrease by £0.90/MWh. Far curve contracts climbed higher, with Summer-16 adding £0.45/MWh alongside EU carbon prices maintaining their gains.
How did the energy markets open?
The gas curve traded relatively flat again this morning, with the only notable pressure being on Day-Ahead prices which opened at a discount of 0.20ppt, due to resumed withdrawals from Rough this morning. Day-Ahead power prices gained £0.05/MWh this morning, whilst Front-Month prices shed £0.20/MWh. The continued rise in EU carbon prices has failed to deliver any convincing bullish pressure across the power curve today, whilst Monday's wind generation is expected to fall significantly.
1-year forward prices
Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for commercial gas shed some value, whilst commercial electricity went up - closing at 61.85ppt and £50.00/MWh, respectively. This can be seen in the graph below. Note: Brent Crude prices are taken from opening market data, and do not represent the price as it changes throughout the day.
Latest Brent Crude Prices
Brent 1st-prices remained relatively stable yesterday at $110/b following low gains overnight and reduced supplies from Africa. The Brent/WTI spread continued to constrict this morning, currently -$4.5/b, on the back of a gain in Gulf Coast stockpiles and another fall in supply at Cushing.