21st March 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Unplanned Norwegian outages restricted flows into the UK yesterday, resulting in a short system, helping gas contracts move higher. A cold outlook for the end of March and the start of April also provided upward pressure on the near-curve. Meanwhile, another rise in oil prices offered support to prices at the back of the curve. Wind generation almost halved from Monday’s levels and little change was expected today, however, solar power is comfortable, helping the prompt record a small decrease. The rest of the curve moved higher with direction coming from weaker gas supply and colder weather prospects, while the far-curve found support from stronger Brent.
Market Open Market Open
Below average temperatures are expected over the Easter weekend which has resulted in more bullish movement across the near gas curve this morning. Low storage levels are also an on-going factor behind bullish movement, as well as a drop in wind power which has increased CCGT demand. A healthier LNG outlook has provided some resistance at the front of the curve but far-curve prices are still dictated by a rising oil market. The prompt displays another small loss this morning as tomorrow’s renewable generation forecast is almost unchanged and milder weather is expected. However, cold weather is expected at the end of the month, supporting the rest of the near-curve. Further out, prices have moved higher once again as oil remains bullish and coal displays a strong rebound.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices continue to climb higher, adding $1/b since yesterday’s open with bullish sentiment provided by the US tour to Saudi Arabia which could see the two nation’s put pressure on Iran’s expansion plans.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased – closing at 50.03ppt and £49.25/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 21-03-2018

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