23rd January 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Comfortable wind generation reduced CCGT demand yesterday, while milder weather resulted in a drop in residential demand, offsetting the effects of a short system and helping near-curve gas prices move down. Unplanned outages restricted some of the losses, while bullish oil provided upward pressure on the far-curve. Temperatures and wind levels were forecast to be almost unchanged today which saw the prompt decrease, with a mild weather outlook for January the main factor behind losses on the rest of the near-curve. However, a rebound on the oil market limited any downward movement at the back of the curve.
Market Open Market Open
Colder weather is expected to hit the UK later this week which will push demand levels higher, resulting in gains across the near-curve this morning. The system has opened 11mcm long despite weaker IUK flows as demand levels are currently 59mcm below the seasonal norm. This comfortable supply picture has helped to cap gains on the prompt, while the far-curve has followed a bullish oil market. Healthy wind generation has helped the prompt shed from its price this morning, although the rest of the near-curve has found support from an expected drop in temperatures later in the week, which will increase heating demand. Further out, prices have moved higher with direction coming from increases on the oil markets.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices have increased with support provided by recent data which points to strong global economic growth, with OPEC efforts to reduce production levels also having an effect.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased – closing at 48.18ppt and £47.36/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 23-01-2018

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