25th January 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Weaker demand levels are expected over the next week or so as temperatures are set to remain mild. UKCS production also increased as a number of outages were resolved, helping towards an oversupplied system. Further out, any bearish movement was limited by a strengthening oil market. Fundamentals were largely unchanged yesterday with the prospects of mild weather weighing on the near-curve. The prompt was the exception to the downward movement as wind levels were set to drop today, while gains on the oil market restricted losses further along the curve.
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Gas demand is set to drop next week and further losses can be seen at the front of the curve this morning; demand in the UK is expected to fall by 283mcm on Monday. The system also remains long despite a drop in UKCS production as imports from mainland Europe are healthy. Meanwhile, Brent continues to provide bullish pressure at the back of the curve, although not enough to result in gains. The prompt displays another gain this morning with wind generation expected to decrease further tomorrow, increasing reliance on gas-fired power. Next week’s mild weather forecast has contributed to price drops on the rest of the near-curve, while stronger Brent provided bullish resistance at the back of the curve.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices display further gains this morning and currently trade above $70.5/b. Support has been provided by a drop in US crude inventories in addition to a weaker Dollar.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased – closing at 46.65ppt and £46.52/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 25-01-2018

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