Near-curve gas prices were dictated by unplanned outages yesterday and recorded strong gains despite below average demand levels. Support was also provided by rising fuel costs, with carbon and coal displaying significant upward movement and Brent recovering from losses incurred in the previous session.
Outages in the UKCS and Norway continued to restrict supply levels and provided support to prices at the front of the gas curve yesterday afternoon. The return of the North Morecambe gas field was postponed for another 4 days, while St Fergus was pushed back to tomorrow. Weak demand levels limited the gains, while a rise in EUA carbon prices helped towards increases at the back of the curve.
Gas prices moved down on Friday afternoon as the demand forecast was low and oil and coal markets moved down. Warm temperatures were expected to weigh on residential demand over the weekend and the start of this week. In terms of supply, Norwegian flows were reduced by unplanned outages but exports from the UK to Belgium decreased.
The system was tighter yesterday due to unplanned outages which continue to limit Norwegian flows to the UK. The LNG outlook is also weak which resulted in an increase in storage withdrawals. As a result of these supply constraints, prices across the near curve moved higher, while bullish oil prices supported the back of the curve.
Gas prices opened lower on Wednesday but unplanned outages continued to restrict flows into the UK and helped contracts on the near-curve recover as the session progressed. Issues at the North Morecambe, Kvitebjorn and Kristin fields, in addition to reduced output at the Bacton Seal terminal combined to limit supply levels. However, demand levels were below the seasonal norm and fuel markets stabilised, providing resistance to the bulls.