With temperatures expected to remain above average, we see no serious risks for the UK gas system over the coming days. The forecasts of colder weather from the middle of next week, along with the on-going Norwegian Troll outage, may actually help month-ahead prices stabilise.
Weak demand supported the UK system yesterday - helping it remain comfortable. At the same time, strong flows from Langeled helped to ease market worries about the extension to the outage on the Norwegian Troll A platform.
Weak demand resulted in a comfortable UK gas system yesterday, which was shown through the drop in storage withdrawals. A clear drop in prices, however, was avoided through the news that the outage on the Troll A platform would continue.
News broke on Friday that the outage at the Norwegian Troll field would last until 1st April (instead of 4th February) - which supported European spot and near curve prices. NBP ICE February 2013 prices rose by 2.01% at close.
The UK gas system sat more comfortably yesterday, with a drop in storage withdrawals after higher domestic production and BBL flows. Pressure was felt after news that the Elgin-Franklin fields are likely to restart in mid-February.