Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Gas prices displayed losses yesterday following an improvement in Norwegian flows, as the outage at Kollsnes was resolved. Milder temperatures are also expected in the coming days with further bearish pressure provided by losses on the coal and oil markets.
Gas prices moved higher on Tuesday as a result of a higher demand forecast for the next few days and an unplanned outage in Norway which restricted supply. Residential demand in the UK rose by 30mcm, with a drop in wind output also leading to a rise in CCGT generation. Meanwhile, bullish movement further along the curve was slightly restricted by weaker coal and oil contracts.
Gas prices decreased yesterday as demand levels remained quite weak and flows from Norway and Russia improved. However, demand levels are set to rise over the next few days due to a drop in temperatures and lower wind levels; limiting the downward movement. Elsewhere, a drop in coal prices applied additional bearish pressure further along the curve.
Gas prices displayed little movement on Friday despite an expected rise in demand this week. Contracts were pressured down by a comfortable system, while coal and oil markets were also stable. Stronger wind levels reduced the need for CCGT generation, while UKCS production increased to make up for a drop in Norwegian flows.
Near-curve gas prices were pressured down by bearish fundamentals, as systems across Europe are comfortable on the back of weak demand. Mild temperatures continued to weigh on residential demand, with levels 15% below the seasonal norm in the UK. A stronger Pound also helped towards the losses further along the curve.