Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Near-curve gas prices displayed a small increase towards the end of yesterdayâ€™s session as Norwegian flows into the UK fell due to an unplanned outage at the Kollsnes processing facility. Movement further along the curve was generally bearish with a milder weather outlook and weaker Brent weighing on contracts.
An increase in exports to Belgium, weaker UKCS flows and a rise in gas-fired power generation left the UK gas system in short supply yesterday; supporting prices on the near-curve. The drop in UKCS production was a result of unplanned maintenance work, restricting supply to the St Fergus terminal. Gains were also visible further out as contracts were dictated by rising Brent.
Most gas contracts posted losses on Monday as demand levels were weaker on the back of milder temperatures in the UK. Strong wind levels also lessened the UKâ€™s reliance on gas-fired generation, further reducing demand. Meanwhile, LNG send-outs increased with several deliveries set to arrive in the UK over the next few days, leading to an oversupplied system. Further along the curve a stronger Pound offset rising oil prices and the majority of prices stabilised.
Strong gains in the oil market pushed curve contracts higher on Friday, while gas demand increased further due to low wind output, also supporting NBP prices. Forecasts of mild weather weighed on prompt contracts.
Near-curve gas contracts displayed gains yesterday on the back of lower withdrawals from the Rough storage facility and higher exports from the UK to Europe. Further along the curve, the majority of contracts found support from rising oil prices and also posted an increase.