Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
2nd November 2015 | Posted by: Sarah Cooper | Market Analysis
Gas prices dropped to a seasonal low on Friday on the back of warm temperatures and news of multiple LNG deliveries over the coming week. Demand remained low on Friday, especially residential demand which was 26mcm below seasonal norms, adding further bearish pressure to NBP spot prices which closed at their lowest mark since August.
Gas prices decreased on Thursday as overall fundamentals were healthy and the Pound continued to strengthen against the Euro. Maintenance in Norway had a lesser effect on UK supply than initially expected and the gas system was only slightly short. Meanwhile, a mild weather forecast for next week provided additional bearish pressure on the near-curve.
Planned maintenance in Norway is set to reduce flows into the UK today which helped to support Day-Ahead gas during yesterdayâ€™s session. The rest of the near-curve was generally stable as the UK gas system remained long despite higher exports to Europe. UK residential demand was 15% below the seasonal norm due to mild weather which further restricted upward movement on the near-curve.
Gas prices failed to show a clear trend yesterday as healthy LNG supply and a drop in residential demand helped to weigh on the prompt, also assisted by a rise in Norwegian flows following the end of maintenance. However, a downward revision in this week's weather forecast offered some support to the rest of near-curve. Seasonal contracts moved down with direction coming from weaker Brent and a stronger Pound.
Gas prices decreased on Monday as overall fundamentals remained healthy despite another outage in Norway, which restricted the prompt from falling further. Gassco announced that the Troll and Kvitebjorn gas fields suffered unexpected outages, reducing Norwegian flows into the UK. However, warmer temperatures and strong LNG send-outs allowed the bears to take control of the curve.