Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Gas prices decreased on Friday ahead of a milder weather outlook for this week. Most contracts erased some of the gains caused by unseasonably high demand and supply tightness, with the National Grid withdrawing its gas deficit warning. Contracts further along the curve, stabilised in the afternoon as a rebound in coal offset the effects of weaker Brent.
Prompt gas prices moved higher on Thursday, with Day-Ahead in particular recording a huge increase on the back of a warning issued by the national grid which requested additional flows from Europe in order to meet demand. Freezing temperatures offered support to the rest of the near-curve but contracts further out moved down, taking direction from weaker coal and oil markets.
Experts at EDF predict that non-energy costs are expected to rise by almost 20% in 2018-19, with Contracts for Difference, Renewable Obligation and Capacity Market supplier charges showing the most significant changes.
Gas prices posted strong gains yesterday due to freezing temperatures which have tightened systems across Europe. Numerous outages have also occurred, providing further support, with some contracts in the UK almost doubling in price. However, movement at the back of the curve was bearish due to weakening coal and oil markets.