Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Gas contracts stabilised on Wednesday as improved Norwegian flows offset the effects of a higher demand forecast, while storage withdrawals at Rough also resumed ahead of schedule. However, the back of the curve found support from a strong rise in coal prices due to worker strikes in Australia.
CCGT generation was down yesterday but colder weather is expected to lift residential demand for the rest of the week, resulting in gains on the near gas curve. On the supply front, the system opened slightly long due to a rise in LNG flows following deliveries at Dragon and the Isle of Grain. Meanwhile, prices on the far-curve were stable-to-bearish as a result of weaker Brent.
Gas prices moved higher during Monday’s session, recovering from the strong losses seen on Friday. Temperatures are set to turn colder later in the week which will lift demand levels, however, reduced gas-fired power generation limited gains on the near-curve. In terms of supply, Norwegian flows showed a significant increase as scheduled maintenance ended. Meanwhile, further support was provided to contracts on the far-curve by a rebound in coal prices.
Gas prices decreased on Friday ahead of the new gas year and the expiration of numerous contracts. Weaker coal prices also applied bearish pressure to the far-curve, while temperatures during October are forecast to be milder than average, further weighing on contracts.