The spot market is expected to tighten midway through next week but until then fluctuating conventional power capacities could provide some unexpected price movement. NBP prices moved down once again yesterday due to an oversupplied system, Norwegian maintenance seemed to have little effect on overall flows and imports from the continent were strong. LDZ demand is only 1mcm higher today and the UK system is still healthy which should weigh on gas prices during today's session. Today's prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our 'current UK energy price' page.
How did the energy markets close?
The UK gas system was comfortable throughout Wednesday's session and stood at 15mcm long which led to Day-Ahead falling to 65.6ppt. The Langeled pipeline saw flows of around 70mcm in the morning but output fell by 10mcm later in the day. Seasonal contracts ignored weaker Brent prices and moved 0.10ppt higher. The power curve saw minimal movement yesterday and Day-Ahead was the only contract to take any real direction, adding £0.40/MWh to its price to close at £50.75/MWh despite lower demand forecasts. The system buy price rose above £300/MWh in recent days but a healthier system has seen this price decrease. Generation was relatively unchanged except for CCGT as a number of units went offline at Pembroke yesterday morning.
How did the energy markets open?
The UK interconnector saw a large rise in imports from the continent which helped prompt prices make gains. Day-Ahead added 0.40ppt to its price although the Front-Month contracts fell slightly as supply forecasts are healthy for this winter. Further along the curve prices took influence from a fall in Brent and made a loss. Front-Month power held its price for the second day running as temperatures are expected to be slightly milder, thus lowering demand. Seasonal contracts were also unchanged and ignored strengthening APi2 coal and carbon allowance prices. Supply levels are expected to improve over the weekend as a 520MW nuclear reactor returned online yesterday.
1-year forward prices
Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for commercial gas made a small loss while commercial electricity retained its price - closing at 66.56ppt and £52.13/MWh, respectively. This can be seen in the graph below. Note: Brent Crude prices are taken from opening market data, and do not represent the price as it changes throughout the day.
Latest Brent Crude Prices
Brent 1st-nearby prices remained around $106/b for most of yesterday's session but opened below $105/b this morning. WTI moved in the opposite direction and registered a gain of $1.43/b, taking the spread to -$10/b. Brent is currently trading at its lowest price for four months and the recent EIA report has helped assist the bears.