Spot power prices inched higher yesterday as a drop in nuclear availability and a slightly colder weather forecast offered support to the bulls. Today prices are expected to fall as the situation in Ukraine remains stable and coal prices are expected to weaken. Gas prices opened yesterday's session with a series of gains but softened later in the afternoon as tensions in Ukraine eased. Today UK LDZ demand is 6mcm lower although temperatures in line with the seasonal average are expected for the rest of the week. Prices could climb higher this afternoon if the situation in Eastern Europe becomes more volatile, while oil prices are also displaying a bullish trend. Today's prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our 'current UK energy price' page.
How did the energy markets close?
The gas market continued its upward trend at the start of yesterday's session but prices weakened as the day went on. Day-Ahead recorded a 2.00ppt loss over the course of the session and was helped by a long UK gas system thanks to healthy withdrawals from the Holford storage facility. Power prices followed their gas counterparts and losses were observed across the curve. Day-Ahead closed the session unchanged as a sizeable drop in wind generation was forecast for today. Coal-fired generation was also reduced due to a series of unexpected outages and scheduled maintenance.
How did the energy markets open?
Gas contracts moved higher for the third day in a row as Day-Ahead increased by 0.80ppt and is expected to rise further this afternoon. Linepack opened the session long but fell short within a few hours as flows via the BBL interconnector were reduced. The power curve mirrored gas and opened today's session with a series of gains with Day-ahead adding £1.25/MWh to its price as wind production is expected to remain low for the rest of the week. Further along the curve the movement was not as substantial as Summer-15 the biggest mover, climbing £0.30/MWh higher.
1-year forward prices
Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased - closing at 60.67ppt and £50.58/MWh, respectively. This can be seen in the graph below. Note: Brent Crude prices are taken from opening market data, and do not represent the price as it changes throughout the day.
Latest Brent Crude Prices
Brent 1st-nearby prices rallied $1.85/b higher yesterday as concerns regarding supply in Ukraine and Libya escalated. WTI also rose by $2.12/b and took influence from these supply concerns and low gasoline stocks in the US.