Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
The supply/ demand picture was mixed on Friday with strong wind levels reducing the need for CCGT power and colder weather lifting residential demand. Movement at the front of the curve was minimal, while stronger fuel markets lifting far-curve contracts.
The gas system was long yesterday which helped to restrict upward movement at the front of the curve. Strong wind levels were also expected to reduce gas-fired power generation today, although colder weather is set to lift residential demand. The rest of the curve was pushed higher by rising fuel, with carbon and emissions contracts both increasing in price.
Strengthening fuel markets continued to support gas prices yesterday but the gains were not as significant as those recorded on Tuesday. Rising Brent and EUA contracts were the main factor behind the bullish movement, although planned maintenance in Norway and a weak LNG outlook also contributed.
Strengthening fuel markets supported gas prices yesterday with additional bullish pressure provided by restrictions on Norwegian and UKCS supply due to planned maintenance. The LNG outlook for September is also weak and European stocks are below average.
Low demand helped the system open slightly long yesterday but maintenance at Norwegian gas facilities will weaken supply this week and offered support to the near-curve. Brent climbed higher in the afternoon as refineries on the Texan Coast began to re-open, while coal also displayed increases.